Bitcoin Is Down 4.4% In The Past 24 Hours. What Happens To The Crypto Market Next?

The big news today is that Bitcoin is down 4.4% in the past 24 hours with the wider crypto market is in the red.

With Bitcoin's halving only day's away, many crypto traders and investors thoughts are turning to the crypto bull run which historically begins after Bitcoins halving but with the war in the Middle East escalating, should crypto traders and investors be fearful?

Whilst no one can accurately predict what will happen with Bitcoin and the wider crypto market especially with geo-political tensions rising by the day, what I can say is that Bitcoin and the wider crypto market is following it's historical cycle leading up to the halving event.

Below is Bitcoin's historical cycle chart (courtesy of rektcapital) which shows where we are leading up to the Bitcoin halving:

As you can see in the chart above, Bitcoin is still in its Pre-Halving Retrace phase where Bitcoin can make a strong pull back in price leading up to and after the halving event before transitioning into the Re-Accumulation phase.

So the pull back in price we are seeing from Bitcoin is to be expected and is a normal historical trend before Bitcoin goes on it's bull run move in the months following Bitcoins halving.

And historically, Bitcoin will reach a new All-Time-High around 250 days after the halving which is the start of Q1 of 2025.

So what will happen with the wider altcoin market? Below is a historical chart showing the altcoin market cap:

Below is the altcoin market hype cycle chart (courtesy of rektcapital)

If we look at the first chart above, the altcoin market has shown a historical pull back in price prior to the halving before taking off after the Bitcoin halving event before reaching an all-time-high 287 days after Bitcoins halving.

So if all goes to plan, the altcoin market cap should peak around Q4 2024 and will peak around $5 Trillion in 2025.

And if we look at the altcoin hype cycle chart, the altcoin market hype is cooling off now and will bottom out by early summer before reaching peak hype by July/mid summer.

So in summary, whilst many novice crypto investors and holders will get spooked by the current retrace by Bitcoin and the wider altcoin market, what we are seeing is all historically normal leading up to Bitcoins halving.

The next few weeks to months will present many bargains for crypto investors before Bitcoin and altcoins start their parabolic bull run move.

However, the spanner in the works that could create a big black swan event is any major escalation in the Middle East especially if it turns into a major, regional war.

If this scenario were to happen, then all bets are off and the crypto market and stock markets could see a huge crash even in a bull run year.

So this must be taken into consideration when playing in the crypto market this bull run.

The crypto market will present big risks in 2024 for crypto investors but the trade off should all go to plan is that the payoff could be huge for those who participate.

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